Dakota Cook
Last October, NBC News first reported that Republicans were quietly floating a conspiracy theory that Biden may not be on this November’s ballot. Following a lackluster debate performance, calls from Democrats, including the NY Times Editorial Board, to replace Biden have amplified. This shift only proves Republican assertions of Biden’s mental and physical incapacity, proving him as unfit for office. Yet, amidst these calls for Biden to resign, what are the financial and strategic implications for National Democrats should they replace Biden on the ballot?
Replacing Biden could begin with a quiet resignation and the DNC selecting an alternative from their shortlist, potentially our very own Governor Cooper, at the convention. While logistics of his replacement have been covered extensively, the numbers tell us where these assertions fall flat.
As of May 31st, the Biden for President Committee had amassed $232 million, with $92.5 million cash on hand. Every dollar matters as Team Trump came off of their best fundraising month in American History. Any replacement, except possibly Kamala Harris, would face significant financial hurdles. If any other candidate would be the one to replace Biden, there would be major ramifications. Only campaigns can send State and National Parties unlimited amounts of money, however, candidates can only receive a maximum of $5,000 from State and National Parties. All other transfers are heavily restricted and the maximum amount that can be transferred from a Campaign Committee to any other candidate is capped at $2,000 and contributions to a PAC is capped at $5,000. So this money is trapped in Biden’s hands.
Losing Biden as the nominee would force the DNC and Democrat PAC’s to pay up to triple the rate for ads the campaign would have purchased. Candidates are given discounts when purchasing TV ads due to the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 which was signed into law by President Nixon. These discounted TV rates, exclusive to candidates, can save millions during campaign peaks in the 60 days leading up to the election in the top media markets. The nearly $100 million in Biden’s coffers, plus whatever he has raised since the end of May, would dry up quickly. This would cause them to have their fund redirected to less impactful media forms like digital ads and mailers.
To add insult to injury, legal constraints prevent Biden’s removal from ballots in key battlegrounds like Nevada and Wisconsin, potentially handing 16 electoral votes to Team Trump. In a few short weeks, Georgia will soon follow, gifting an additional 16 votes to Team Trump. This shifts battlegrounds to only Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Winning just one of these new battleground states would secure President Trump’s victory, whereas the new Democratic nominee must sweep all. With this dire need to become competitive, expect a strategic VP choice from one of the pivotal states, like North Carolina.
With this scenario, North Carolina emerges as a major battleground state. Should Democrats turn North Carolina competitive, both parties would divert substantial resources to capture this “must-win” state. With the election growing closer each and every single day, National Democrats and the national media will be stuck trying to familiarize voters with a new nominee. This accelerated timeline and heightened ad costs further strain DNC and PAC budgets.
Regardless, Biden has fulfilled the prophecy Republicans have been highlighting with his horrendous debate performance. Biden’s poor debate performance, and now calls for his resignation are only helping solidify support for Team Trump. If this decision is pushed into a massive legal battle, or a fight on the DNC Convention floor, it will allow Biden’s incompetence to be talked about for months on end. As of now, the only question remains. Are National Democrats willing to accept the true cost of the Biden Replacement Theory or are they still Ridin’ with Biden?
Dakota Cook is a lifelong Republican who has worked on numerous campaigns in positions ranging from intern to State Director. His interests include knocking on doors and winning elections. He has had over 100 media hits on every major news network. “I don’t know. He just grew on me” -Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit MI)